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Abstract Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.more » « less
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Taylor-Rodriguez, Daniel; Finley, Andrew O.; Datta, Abhirup; Babcock, Chad; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Cook, Bruce D.; Morton, Douglas C.; Banerjee, Sudipto (, Statistica Sinica)
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Cahoon, Sean M.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Brownlee, Annalis H.; Pattison, Robert R.; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Legner, Kate; Hollingsworth, Teresa N. (, Ecology)
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Duncanson, Laura; Kellner, James R.; Armston, John; Dubayah, Ralph; Minor, David M.; Hancock, Steven; Healey, Sean P.; Patterson, Paul L.; Saarela, Svetlana; Marselis, Suzanne; et al (, Remote Sensing of Environment)
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